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Market commentary from Interims Report dated 31 March 2026
●The UK economic outlook remains subdued, with GDP growth expected to be around 1% in 2026 amid geopolitical uncertainty and weak productivity. Having eased to 2.8% in May, inflation is now expected to reaccelerate, with CPI forecast at around 3.5% by year-end.
●The downward path for interest rates has stalled, with the base rate held at 3.75% and risk skewed towards a prolonged hold, sustaining a cautious investment environment.
●The investment market for commercial property has been relatively steady in recent months, though sentiment remains weak. Performance is increasingly income-driven, with limited scope for capital value growth in the near term.
●Occupational markets remain relatively resilient, supported by constrained development pipelines and stable tenant demand, with modest rental growth concentrated in prime assets.
Market commentary from Interims Report dated 31 March 2025
GDP growth by 0.5% in the year to 31 March 2025, leading economists to revise their full year GDP growth forecasts from 1.3% to 1.8%.
The National Bank of Romania’s policy interest rate The Benchmark interest rate has maintained its policy (monetary) interest rate at 6.50 % per annum.
The total value of commercial property transactions reached €723 million in the year to 31 March 2025, broadly unchanged from the level recorded in the corresponding period to March 2024.
Market commentary from Interims Report dated 31 March 2026
●The Polish economic outlook remains comparatively robust, with GDP growth expected to be around 3.5% in 2026, underpinned by resilient consumption and EU-funded investment. Inflation has proved sticky at around 3.1% in May, amid persistent energy cost pressures. The easing cycle has paused, with the NBP reference rate held at 3.75% and rates expected to remain on hold through year-end.
●Sentiment in the Polish commercial property market is improving. Investment turnover is expected to exceed the prior year (2025: €4.5 billion), with domestic capital taking a rising share (2025: 16%; 2026 estimate: 20%).
●Occupational markets are resilient, supported by limited new development and stable demand, with modest rental growth in prime assets.
●Investment demand is focused on modern, well-located, ESG-compliant buildings.